A short-term longitudinal study of reciprocal relations among expectancy, task value, and achievement goals within the frameworks of the expectancy-value and achievement goal theories

Background: The expectancy-value and achievement-goal theories are two major frameworks for explaining individual differences in students' learning motivation. Although both have accumulated substantial empirical support, their constructs are often examined in isolation, and little is known about their longitudinal and reciprocal relationships. Objective: This study investigated short-term longitudinal associations among expectancy, task value, cost, and achievement goals. Methods: A two-wave survey was conducted with 331 Japanese first-year university and vocational school students over 1 month. Participants completed validated questionnaires measuring expectancy, task value (interest, attainment, practical utility, and institutional utility), cost, and achievement goals (mastery, performance approach, and performance avoidance). Cross-lagged panel modeling was conducted using full information maximum likelihood estimation. Results: Institutional utility value at Time 1 positively predicted practical utility value at Time 2. Mastery goals at Time 1 positively predicted practical utility value, interest value, and attainment value at Time 2. Performance-avoidance goals at Time 1 positively predicted performance-approach goals at Time 2. In contrast, expectancy and task value showed limited predictive effects on subsequent achievement goals. Conclusion: These findings suggest that achievement goals, particularly mastery goals, may function as antecedents of specific expectancy-value components over time, whereas reverse pathways were not supported. The results highlight the importance of reconsidering the temporal ordering among motivational constructs and contribute to ongoing efforts to integrate Expectancy-Value Theory and Achievement Goal Theory.