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Abstract In this article, we analyze the citations to articles published in 11 biological and medical journals from 2003 to 2007 that employ author‐choice open‐access models. Controlling for known explanatory predictors of citations, only 2 of the 11 journals show positive and significant open‐access effects. Analyzing all journals together, we report a small but significant increase in article citations of 17%. In addition, there is strong evidence to suggest that the open‐access advantage is declining by about 7% per year, from 32% in 2004 to 11% in 2007.
Philip M. Davis (2008) studied this question.