A Pattern-Mixture Model for Longitudinal Binary Responses with Nonignorable Nonresponse

Longitudinal studies frequently incur outcome-related nonresponse. In this article, we discuss a likelihood-based method for analyzing repeated binary responses when the mechanism leading to missing response data depends on unobserved responses. We describe a pattern-mixture model for the joint distribution of the vector of binary responses and the indicators of nonresponse patterns. Specifically, we propose an extension of the multivariate logistic model to handle nonignorable nonresponse. This method yields estimates of the mean parameters under a variety of assumptions regarding the distribution of the unobserved responses. Because these models make unverifiable identifying assumptions, we recommended conducting sensitivity analyses that provide a range of inferences, each of which is valid under different assumptions for nonresponse. The methodology is illustrated using data from a longitudinal study of obesity in children.