The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a potential tipping element in Earth's climate system, yet Earth System Models disagree by a factor of three on projected weakening by 2100. Here we introduce Glass-Atlantic, a spectral neural operator that learns the governing equations of rotating stratified flow while enforcing mass, momentum, and energy conservation by architectural construction. A divergence-free spectral projection eliminates numerical drift; renormalization-group multiscale coupling captures energy transfer across five decades of spatial scale; and an evidential uncertainty head decomposes predictive variance into intrinsic and structural components. Trained on satellite altimetry, the ECCO reanalysis, and 15 CMIP6 models, Glass-Atlantic achieves an anomaly correlation of 0. 76 at ten-year lead time, 40% above the CMIP6 multi-model mean, and assigns a 548\% collapse probability before 2050 under SSP5-8. 5, with the largest structural uncertainty localised to the subpolar gyre where eddy parameterisations diverge most strongly among state-of-the-art climate models.
Robin Bisht (2026) studied this question.