The SAPROF-SO was developed as a measure of protective factors relevant to sexual recidivism to support a balanced, holistic assessment of recidivism risk. Traditionally, sexual recidivism risk has been largely understood in terms of the density of risk factors presented by the individual, as measured by instruments like the Static-99R. This paper investigated how far the recidivism risk implied by a Static-99R score would be moderated by the presence of protective factors as measured by the SAPROF-SO Version 1. Data representing 5-year sexual recidivism, along with scores on Static-99R and the SAPROF-SO Version 1, were collated from previously collected samples of men with a history of sexual offending who had been selected for prison treatment programs designed to reduce sexual recidivism risk in Canada and New Zealand, giving a combined sample of N = 467. Fitting a logistic regression equation to predict 5-year sexual recidivism indicated that both instruments were predictive, with the SAPROF-SO powerfully moderating the level of risk implied by Static-99R scores. Implications for clinical assessment are discussed and an Excel-based calculator implementing the logistic regression equation was developed for clinical use.
Thornton et al. (2026) studied this question.