From inflation to black hole mergers and back again: Gravitational-wave data-driven constraints on inflationary scenarios with a first-principle model of primordial black holes across the QCD epoch

Recent population studies have searched for a subpopulation of primordial black holes (PBHs) in the gravitational-wave (GW) events so far detected by LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA (LVK), in most cases adopting a phenomenological PBH mass distribution. When deriving such a population from first principles in the standard scenario, however, the equation of state of the Universe at the time of PBH formation may strongly affect the PBH abundance and mass distribution, which ultimately depend on the power spectrum of cosmological perturbations. Here we improve on previous population studies on several aspects: (i) we adopt state-of-the-art PBH formation models describing the collapse of cosmological perturbations across the QCD epoch; (ii) we perform the first Bayesian multipopulation inference on GW data including PBHs and directly using power spectrum parameters instead of phenomenological distributions; (iii) we critically confront the PBH scenario with LVK phenomenological models describing the GWTC-3 catalog both in the neutron-star and in the BH mass ranges, also considering PBHs as a subpopulation of the total events. Our results confirm that LVK observations prevent the majority of the dark matter to be in the form of stellar mass PBHs. We find that the best-fit PBH model can comprise a small fraction of the total events, in particular it can naturally explain events in the mass gaps. If the lower mass-gap event GW190814 is interpreted as a PBH binary, we predict that LVK should detect up to a few subsolar mergers and one to 30 lower mass-gap events during the upcoming O4 and O5 runs. Finally, mapping back the best-fit power spectrum into an ultra-slow-roll inflationary scenario, we show that the latter predicts detectable PBH mergers in the LVK band, a stochastic GW background detectable by current and future instruments, and may include the entirety of dark matter in asteroid-mass PBHs.