Financial markets and mass political attitudes: evidence from the 2022 Brazilian election

How do financial markets affect mass attitudes toward candidates in democratic elections? We theorize that, especially in financially open countries in the Global South, voters respond to financial market assessments of candidates for national election. We expect that they do so via two mechanisms: First, voters may be aware that financial market movements can affect material outcomes, such as the prospects for future economic growth and the likelihood of debt distress. Second, voters rely on financial markets for cues regarding candidates’ economic policy competence. Using data from an original randomized survey experiment conducted during the 2022 Brazilian presidential election campaign, we find evidence for both the material and the cue-taking mechanisms. Our results identify a previously underappreciated way in which financial markets can affect domestic politics, viz., through their influence on citizens’ attitudes toward political candidates.