Global cropland has historically expanded and this trend is expected to continue as global food demand is projected to grow. However, cropland abandonment is also steadily occurring, with workforce shortages recognized as one of major contributing factors. Here we demonstrate that the agricultural workforce will be a dominant constraint on cropland availability and its future changes, complementing the currently considered environmental constraints. On the basis of the historical trajectory, this study projects additional offsets in future cropland availability resulting from the introduction of workforce constraints. Although global cropland demand can be met without further expansion into natural areas, regional disparities persist between the workforce-constrained cropland availability and cropland use projected under widely established shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway (SSP–RCP) scenarios and their assumptions. These gaps suggest the need for targeted policies supporting additional workforce development, technological innovations in the agricultural sector and migration inflows to sustain projected levels of cropland usage. Future food demand is expected to drive cropland expansion, but emerging agricultural workforce shortages, contributing to local cropland abandonment, might limit food production. This study models the future impacts of labour constraints on cropland use under socioeconomic and climate scenarios.
Lee et al. (2026) studied this question.