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June 3, 2026Journal of Architecture and Planning (Transactions of AIJ)0 citationsOpen Access

Pedestrian Flow Estimation in a Large-Scale Underground Pedestrian Mall Considering in-Store Stopover Behavior

TOToshihiro OsaragiKYKosei Yatabe

Key Points

  • This research aims to improve pedestrian flow estimation models by incorporating in-store stopover behavior and time-varying parameters.
  • Developed an Origin–Stopover–Destination (OSD) framework for flow estimation.
  • Integrated cross-sectional flow surveys, mobile location data, and occupant observations in analysis.
  • Applied the model to a large-scale underground pedestrian mall.
  • Estimated inflows/outflows and aisle-level flows, showing close agreement with observational data.
  • Revealed attribute-dependent mean dwell times, indicating variability based on store characteristics.
  • Simulated traffic shifts under a subway extension scenario, forecasting future flow patterns.

Abstract

This paper advances conventional OD estimation models from cross-sectional counts by introducing an Origin–Stopover–Destination (OSD) framework that explicitly models time-varying in-store dwell between origins and destinations. We integrate cross-sectional flow surveys, mobile phone location data, and occupant observations to estimate unknown parameters. Applied to a large underground pedestrian mall, the model estimates inflows/outflows, aisle-level flows, and store occupancy, yielding close agreement with observations. Inferred occupancies reveal attribute-dependent mean dwell times across stores. We further simulate traffic shifts under a subway extension scenario.

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Cite This Study

Osaragi et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a1fc3d7dee9eb8c0dce55b2https://doi.org/10.3130/aija.91.1284
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