This paper explores the conceptual relationship between first-order chemical kinetics and the persistence of zoonotic viral outbreaks. By integrating the mathematical principles of deterministic chemical reaction dynamics with ecological observations of Hantavirus vector systems, this study establishes a deterministic framework mapping the asymptotic decay patterns of first-order reactions onto the long-term enzootic persistence of pathogens within reservoir populations. Climatic and environmental shifts are modelled as catalytic modulators that lower the ecological activation barriers to transmission, thereby accelerating the rate constant and triggering recurrent epidemic waves from a low-level baseline. This cross-disciplinary approach demonstrates the utility of reaction kinetics in modelling pathogen reservoirs, providing a novel, intuitive methodology for identifying environmental triggers prior to spillover events.
Urvashi Kankran (2026) studied this question.