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June 3, 2026Methods in Ecology and Evolution0 citationsOpen Access

Discovering data‐driven microbial growth models with symbolic regression

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TST. Anthony SunDKDovydas KičiatovasIAInga-Katariina Aapalampi

Key Points

  • This research aims to discover interpretable microbial growth models through data-driven methods.
  • Developed a symbolic regression approach to propose growth models from microbial data.
  • Validated the method using E. coli data across various nutrient concentrations.
  • Employed Random Forest machine learning to analyze population dynamics and resource consumption.
  • Identified cumulative population gain as a more predictive feature than population size.
  • Demonstrated that area under the growth curve reflects effective resource dynamics.
  • Found that both linear and Monod dynamic models fit the data with parsimony and biological relevance.

Abstract

Abstract Connecting mathematical models with empirically measured microbial growth has remained challenging, as numerous competing models based on different theoretical approaches can fit observations. Therefore, we develop a method to automatically propose growth models from microbial data alone. We validate this approach using an available dataset of E. coli grown on known resources, and study 14 species across various concentrations of a rich medium. The inherently interpretable approach of symbolic regression infers explicit dynamical models directly from growth data. Using symbolic regression natively, does not favour biologically interpretable models, but we find cumulative population gain to be a more informative machine learning feature than population size. Random Forest machine learning allows us to relate this finding to the approximation of a constant‐rate per capita resource consumption. This suggests that the area under the growth curve (AUC) measured in routine experiments provides information on the effective resource dynamics governing microbial growth. Finally, we use theoretical insights to inform the symbolic regression algorithm and favour biologically interpretable models. Overall, we found that balancing between data fit, parsimony and biological relevance favoured both the simplest, linear approximation and models based on Monod dynamics, with either one or two underlying resources. Therefore, our approach to read growth laws off of microbial batch cultures provides insights on data‐driven modelling.

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Cite This Study

Sun et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a1fc6f7dee9eb8c0dce7dc6https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.70335
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