The opposing forces diffusion model: the initiation and repression of collective violence

This paper re-evaluates a classic deterministic model of collective violence diffusion and demonstrates a series of shortcomings in it. In response, a new model, the opposing forces diffusion model, is introduced. The opposing forces model treats observed event cycles as the result of two underlying logistic diffusion processes, one for provocation of events and one for repression. The result is a model that is more flexible, more straightforwardly interpreted, and considerably more accurate than its predecessors. Furthermore, because the new model treats provocation and repression as two distinct processes, they can be disentangled and subjected to lower-level scrutiny.