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This century’s extreme rainfall events have become more frequent, intense, and prolonged due to climate change, posing a severe threat to agricultural productivity. China is a large country with diverse rainfall patterns across its many regions. This study investigates the impact of intense rainfall on the resilience of China’s agricultural economy using panel data from 276 cities (2008–2021). The results showed that extreme rainfall reduces the economic resilience of agriculture. This effect can be mitigated by advanced industrial structures. Agricultural labor productivity positively mediates agricultural economic resilience under extreme or low urban–rural income disparity, while it negatively mediates under middle-income disparity. Heterogeneity analysis shows that extreme rainfall primarily weakens the resistance and regulatory capacity within agricultural economic resilience, and its inhibitory effect was more pronounced in the main grain-producing areas, the Yangtze River Economic Belt region, and the coastal region. Compared with before 2014, the weakening effect of extreme rainfall on agricultural economic resilience is more significant in 2015–2021. Policy implications for strengthening adaptive capacity to rainfall variability, improving system design, and harmonizing regional agricultural production are proposed.
Yi et al. (2026) studied this question.