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May 1, 1936The Quarterly Journal of Economics81 citations

Speculation and the Carryover

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JWJohn Burr Williams

Key Points

  • This analysis explores how speculation affects supply and demand, influencing market dynamics and pricing.
  • Defined key concepts such as carryover, demand curve, and supply curve.
  • Examined the impact of crop yields and weather on pricing.
  • Analyzed price fluctuations under different carrying situations.
  • Speculation drives consumption and production decisions, impacting equilibrium.
  • Identified a saw-tooth price pattern in years without carryover.
  • Concluded that multiple years of holding are necessary for market stabilization.

Abstract

Speculation upon the supply, and upon the demand, 436.— Definition of the carryover, 436.— The demand curve, 438.— The supply curve, 438.— Yields and the weather, 439.— Price of a short crop, 441. — Of a bumper crop, 441.— The carrying charge, 441.— Effect of speculation on consumption, 442— On production, 442.— Equilibrium in a one-year's operation, 443.— In a several-years' operation, 446.— Number of years' holding needed, 447.— Saw-tooth course of prices in years without carryover, 448.— Solution by successive approximation, 449.— Corollaries, 450.— Speculation upon the demand, 450.— Note on probability, 452.

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Cite This Study

John Burr Williams (1936) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a20b9d4cd5c62c644e4e400https://doi.org/10.2307/1882611
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