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June 4, 2026Gates Open Research0 citationsOpen Access

Geospatial Settlement Data and Immunization Reach in Polio SIAs: Evidence from Axis of Intractable Transmission States in Northern Nigeria

ASAbubakar ShehuLMLoveth MetibobaNONnenna Ohiaeri

Key Result

Settlement-level geolocation completeness (92.1% to 100%) was associated with higher, more stable tracking coverage (mean 93% in Kebbi) and improved vaccination outputs during cVDPV2 campaigns.

Key Points

  • This study aims to evaluate how geospatial interventions affect immunization reach during cVDPV2 SIAs in Northern Nigeria.
  • Conducted a retrospective operational analysis using data from nine consecutive SIAs (April 2024–June 2025).
  • Extracted state-level indicators from the Master List of Settlements geospatial records and campaign data.
  • Performed descriptive statistics, bivariate exploratory relationships, and temporal learning analysis to assess geospatial influence on tracking outcomes.
  • Geospatial completeness ranged from 92.1% in Zamfara to 100% in Kebbi, correlating with higher tracking coverage.
  • Kebbi exhibited a mean tracking performance of 93%, attributed to complete geolocation of settlements.
  • Operational learning showed 8 to 10 percentage point improvements in tracking coverage across rounds in Sokoto, Katsina, and Zamfara.

Study Design

Type

Observational

Multicenter

Yes

Structured PICO

Does settlement-level geolocation improve the quality and reach of cVDPV2 SIAs in Northern Nigeria?

P
Population
Retrospective operational analysis of nine consecutive cVDPV2 Supplementary Immunization Activities across four states in Northern Nigeria.
E
Exposure
Geospatial investments (Master List of Settlements geospatial records and campaign data)
O
Outcome
Immunization reach and operational quality (geospatial completeness, settlement tracking coverage, MLoS-derived population targets, number of children vaccinated)

Settlement-level geolocation improves the quality and reach of polio vaccination campaigns by strengthening visibility of target populations and promoting more reliable tracking.

Abstract

Background The persistent transmission of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) in Northern Nigeria, especially in the Axis of Intractable Transmission (AIT) states, Kebbi, Sokoto, Katsina, and Zamfara, despite national certification of wild poliovirus interruption, is strongly associated with fragmented settlement visibility, population denominator inaccuracies, and uneven implementation of Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs). This study examines whether these geospatial investments as broader ecosystem of interventions improve immunization reach and operational quality during cVDPV2 SIAs. Methods A retrospective operational analysis was conducted using data from nine consecutive SIAs (April 2024–June 2025). We extracted state-level indicators from the Master List of Settlements (MLoS) geospatial records and campaign data, which included (1) geospatial completeness, defined as the proportion of settlements with validated coordinates; (2) settlement tracking coverage; (3) MLoS-derived population targets for children; and (4) number of children vaccinated. Descriptive statistics, bivariate exploratory relationships, and temporal learning analysis were performed to evaluate how geospatial status influenced tracking outcomes. Results Geospatial completeness ranged from 92.1% (Zamfara) to 100% (Kebbi) and was associated with higher, more stable tracking coverage. Kebbi, with complete geolocation of settlements, demonstrated consistently strong tracking performance (mean 93%). Settlement tracking correlated positively with vaccination outputs in Kebbi and Sokoto but demonstrated saturation effects in Katsina and diminishing returns in Zamfara. Operational learning was observed in Sokoto, Katsina, and Zamfara, each demonstrating 8 to 10 percentage point improvements in tracking coverage across rounds. Conclusion In addition to other contributory factors, settlement-level geolocation improves the quality and reach of cVDPV2 SIAs by strengthening visibility of target populations and promoting more reliable tracking. The MLoS updates and tracking of settlements and vaccination teams demonstrated transformative potential in optimizing vaccination campaigns by improving equity, accountability, and efficiency. Its deployment offers valuable lessons for enhancing immunization efforts in resource-constrained and security-compromised settings, emphasizing the importance of strategic integration and sustained investments in public health innovation.

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Cite This Study

Shehu et al. (2026) conducted an observational in circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) immunization. Geospatial settlement data and Master List of Settlements (MLoS) updates was evaluated on Geospatial completeness and settlement tracking coverage. Settlement-level geolocation completeness (92.1% to 100%) was associated with higher, more stable tracking coverage (mean 93% in Kebbi) and improved vaccination outputs during cVDPV2 campaigns.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a2116fad499ed480b16fcf8https://doi.org/10.12688/gatesopenres.16387.1
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