Why does snowmelt-driven streamflow response to warming vary? A data-driven review and predictive framework

Abstract Climate change is altering the seasonal accumulation and ablation of snow across mid-latitude mountainous regions in the Northern Hemisphere with profound implications for the water resources available to downstream communities and environments. Despite decades of empirical and model-based research on snowmelt-driven streamflow, our ability to predict whether streamflow will increase or decrease in a changing climate remains limited by two factors. First, predictions are fundamentally hampered by high spatial and temporal variability in the processes that control net snow accumulation and ablation across mountainous environments. Second, we lack a consistent and testable framework to coordinate research to determine which dominant mechanisms influencing seasonal snow dynamics are most and least important for streamflow generation in different basins. Our data-driven review marks a step towards the development of such a framework. We first conduct a systematic literature review that synthesizes knowledge about seasonal snowmelt-driven streamflow and how it is altered by climate change, highlighting unsettled questions about how annual streamflow volume is shaped by changing snow dynamics. Drawing from literature, we then propose a framework comprised of three testable, inter-related mechanisms—snow season mass and energy exchanges, the intensity of snow season liquid water inputs, and the synchrony of energy and water availability. Using data for 537 catchments in the United States, we demonstrate the utility of each mechanism and suggest that streamflow prediction will be more challenging in regions with multiple interacting mechanisms. This framework is intended to inform the research community and improve management predictions as it is tested and refined.