Replacing fossil feedstocks with renewable, drop-in intermediates offers a rapid defossilization strategy while exploiting existing infrastructure. This study quantifies the cradle-to-gate greenhouse gas emissions and raw material costs for methyl methacrylate (MMA) via a representative ethylene (“C2”) route using fossil, biomass, and direct-air-capture CO2 feedstocks. Results suggest that conventional MMA emits 3. 43 kg CO2-eq kg–1. Switching to biomass or CO2 feedstocks yields negative emissions of −0. 79 and −1. 13 kg CO2-eq kg–1, respectively. Uncertainty analysis demonstrates −0. 88 to −0. 40 kg CO2-eq kg–1 (biomass) and −1. 23 to −1. 03 kg CO2-eq kg–1 (CO2). Raw-material costs rise from 0. 65 kg–1 (fossil) to 1. 52 kg–1 (biomass) and 2. 66 kg–1 (CO2), driven by renewable ethylene and formaldehyde. The green premium required for cost parity with fossil fuel-based MMA is 0. 31–1. 04 kg–1 (biomass) and 1. 27–2. 12 kg–1 (CO2), equivalent to a 16–52% and 63–106% markup. Propagated to consumer products, the highest premium inflates prices by <15% for an acrylic sheet and <1% for higher-value items (rear car lamps; LCD televisions). Eliminating the premium requires carbon prices of 72–296 tn–1 CO2 (biomass) and 269–512 tn–1 CO2 (CO2). These results position biomass drop-ins as a near-term strategy, while CO2-derived options need further improvements to reach cost parity.
Bowler et al. (2026) studied this question.