Multi-decadal analysis of shoreline dynamics and coastal vulnerability along the Duba coast (Red Sea, Saudi Arabia): interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors in a context of rapid development

Introduction Shorelines in dry regions are increasingly threatened by climate change and rapid human development. This study provides a comprehensive overview of shoreline change along the 130 km Duba coast on the north Saudi Arabian Red Sea. Methods We analyzed 39 years (1985–2024) of satellite imagery, including 15 Landsat and 8 Sentinel-2 scenes, using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS v5. 1) with enhanced temporal resolution and spatially adaptive uncertainty values. Key regression analyses and statistical tools were applied to assess natural and anthropogenic drivers of shoreline change. Results The shoreline shifts rapidly, averaging -0. 73 0. 18 m/year, more than 2. 4 times the global average for dry coasts. A significant change occurred around 2004, marking a transition from stable to accelerated shoreline movement. Erosion dominated 68. 2% of the coastline, reaching -2. 34 0. 28 m/year in the densely built northern sector, while accretion occurred in southeast bays. Regression analysis attributed 58% of variance to natural causes (e. g. , wave energy, sea level anomalies) and 42% to human activities (e. g. , building density, port construction). The Coastal Vulnerability Index identified 62% of the coast at high or very high risk. Discussion Our integrated approach, combining multi-temporal remote sensing with advanced statistical and uncertainty analysis, provides reproducible results and actionable insights for coastal management. The findings support Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and NEOM goals and can be applied to monitor other rapidly changing dry coastlines worldwide.