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Abstract Given the rising share of intermittent generation out of renewable energy sources on the one hand and the increased regulatory efforts to lower transmission costs and tariffs on the other hand, the optimal dimensioning of necessary control reserve has gained additional importance during the last years. Grid codes like the UCTE Operation Handbook do not provide definitive and unambiguous methods for dimensioning of secondary and tertiary control reserves. This paper therefore presents a method which calculates the necessary control reserve considering all important drivers for power imbalances like power plant outages, load variations and forecast error. For dimensioning, a probabilistic criterion, the accepted probability of insufficient control reserve, is used. Probability density functions of control area imbalances are calculated using a convolution algorithm. This paper provides analyses for a stylised example system to demonstrate the capabilities of the method. In a sensitivity analysis the impact of drivers like plant failures and forecast errors of load and generation is shown. The presented method is used by transmission system operators and regulatory authorities to determine and substantiate the necessary amount of control reserve. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Maurer et al. (2009) studied this question.