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This study investigates the transition from "demographic dividend" to "digital dividend" in driving industrial structural upgrading under population aging. Based on balanced panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2012-2022), a two-way fixed effects model reveals how population aging reshapes industrial dynamics through service-oriented restructuring, while digital transformation emerges as a critical pathway to sustain upgrading momentum. Grouped regression analysis based on digital development levels demonstrates significant interval variations in the effect of aging-driven industrial upgrading across different digital maturity stages. Spatial Durbin model further uncovers dual-path spillovers: aging facilitates positive demonstration effects across neighboring regions, yet digital advancement exhibits a "siphon effect" in economically linked areas, diverting resources from peripheral zones. The empirical results show that: After controlling for regional heterogeneity, the increase in the proportion of the elderly population has a statistically significant positive impact on the restructuring of service-oriented industries; The interaction coefficient between digital transformation and population aging presents nonlinear characteristics, and their synergistic effect is only significant when the digital index exceeds a critical threshold; The spatial effect decomposition indicates that population aging has a positive demonstration effect on the industrial transformation of neighboring regions, while digital development will produce a "siphon effect" in areas with high economic connections, thereby inhibiting the upgrading process of surrounding regions.
Li et al. (2025) studied this question.