Machine Learning Forecasts of Coastal Chlorophyll-a Based on Satellite and Model Data: A Case Assessment in the Northern Taiwan Strait

The chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration is a major indicator of marine ecosystem status, harmful algal blooms, and marine primary productivity. In coastal waters, however, complex hydrodynamic and ecological conditions lead to highly variable chl-a dynamics, driven by diverse and interacting mechanisms, posing substantial challenges for chl-a forecasts. To assess the applicability of machine learning approaches in predicting chl-a under complex coastal environments, we present a case study in the Taiwan Strait, where harmful algal blooms occur a few times every year. Based on satellite remote sensing data, a spatiotemporal imputation and prediction framework (STIMP), temporal models (Transformer, CrossFormer, Tsmixer), and spatiotemporal models (MTGNN and PredRNN) were applied to simulate chl-a spatiotemporal variability. A hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model was compared with these machine learning approaches to assess the model skills in coastal chl-a simulations. Results indicate that machine learning models trained with satellite data exhibit reasonable predictive skill offshore with pronounced seasonal variability and low data missing ratio, while their performance weakens in regions where seasonal signals are masked by short-term chl-a fluctuations with more missing data. In contrast, the hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model represents short-term variations in chl-a in nearshore regions with higher temporal resolution and accounts for the underlying mechanisms of phytoplankton biomass accumulation and die-off. When trained with model output, the machine learning approach shows improved performance in coastal chl-a forecasts, with much higher computational efficiency compared to the hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model. This study highlights the advantage of mechanistic and machine learning models in deciphering the spatiotemporal scales and governing mechanisms of chl-a variability in coastal regions and extracting spatiotemporal variability with computational efficiency, respectively. With input data of sufficient temporal resolution (e.g., daily to 3 days) and duration (5–10 years), a combination of the machine learning and mechanistic modeling approaches is recommended for operational coastal phytoplankton bloom forecasting.