Social protection has emerged as a crucial instrument for reducing poverty and income inequality in many low- and middle-income countries across the world. In Nigeria, several social protection programmes and interventions have been introduced and implemented over the last decade with the aim of improving the welfare of vulnerable households, promoting inclusive growth, and addressing rising levels of poverty and inequality. Despite these efforts, there are increasing indications that such investments have not produced the expected or desired reductions in poverty and income disparities. This suggests that social protection investments may not have been sufficiently effective in addressing the structural causes of poverty and inequality in the country. Against this background, this paper assesses the impact of social protection on poverty and income distribution in Nigeria by taking into account the general equilibrium effects associated with at-scale financing mechanisms. The study adopts a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) microsimulation model calibrated with a combined dataset comprising the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Nigeria and the Nigeria General Household Survey 2015–2016. Findings from the study reveal that social protection investments can contribute significantly to reductions in poverty and income inequality under favourable economic and policy conditions. In particular, the foreign aid financing channel was found to be the most effective in reducing poverty. The paper therefore emphasizes the importance of strengthening North–South collaborations in the design, implementation, and financing of anti-poverty social protection programmes in line with Sustainable Development Goal 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).
Sanusi et al. (2026) studied this question.