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June 15, 20260 citationsOpen Access

CDN-203: The Source Side Breaks

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NHNicky Joseph Hubertus Catharina Hacquier

Key Points

  • This research aims to assess the performance of CDN-203 in testing a new source-side branch and its implications on prediction accuracy.
  • Tested below-crossing source-side branch at delta=0.07 and xi=17.92.
  • Utilized a fine-grid asymptotic floor fit over theta values ranging from 5 to 60.
  • Analyzed velocity peaks and error metrics to evaluate source-side margin performance.
  • CDN-196 source prediction yielded eps_inf = 0.011897 with a tolerance of 0.006.
  • Extended analysis showed eps_inf = 0.031079 with a signed error of +0.019182 and R2 value of 0.999895.
  • Significant findings indicate that peak velocities are interior, suggesting failure in the claim-boundary event.

Abstract

CDN-203 tests a new below-crossing source-side branch at delta=0. 07, xi=17. 92. The frozen CDN-196 source prediction was epsᵢnf = 0. 011897 with tolerance 0. 006. An extended CDN-179-style fine-grid asymptotic floor fit over theta=5 through 60 gives epsᵢnf = 0. 031079, signed error +0. 019182, and floor-model R2 = 0. 999895. The theta series is monotone and all velocity peaks are interior, so the source-side margin fails as a claim-boundary event rather than a numerical edge artifact.

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Nicky Joseph Hubertus Catharina Hacquier (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a2f98f8a1cfeec490829c68https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20676119
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