Dynamic Three-Dimensional Zoning of Ecosystem Service Interactions Under Future Land-Use Scenarios: A Songnen Plain Case Study

Dynamic trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services (ESs) are highly sensitive to land-use change, spatial scale, and future uncertainty. However, most ES-based zoning studies rely on static assessments that overlook temporal dynamics and scenario robustness. To address this limitation, we propose a novel intensity–trend–stability framework that integrates historical interaction strength, projected future trajectories, and cross-scenario consistency to assess and spatially zone ES interactions. The framework was applied to the Songnen Plain, China, using multi-scale analysis and four contrasting land-use scenarios for 2030. An XGBoost–SHAP model was further employed to identify key drivers and nonlinear effects underlying ES interaction dynamics. Results show that (1) land-use transitions exhibit strong scenario dependency under different development pathways. (2) Water yield consistently exhibits trade-offs with other ESs, whereas soil retention, carbon sequestration, and habitat quality maintain stable synergies, with interaction intensity generally weakening at coarser scales. (3) The proposed framework effectively identifies stable conflict zones, synergistic hotspots, and transitional areas, with HHH zones of water-related interactions accounting for 30.72–37.43% of the study area, while LLH zones of other ES pairs each occupy more than 39%. (4) Climatic and topographic factors primarily regulate water-related interactions, whereas vegetation conditions and landscape configuration dominate synergistic ES relationships, with pronounced nonlinear threshold effects. The proposed framework improves the detection of dynamic ES interaction patterns and supports scenario-based ecological zoning and sustainable land-use management.