Driver or Deterrent? Deciphering the Impact of Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces on Non-Grain Production of Cultivated Land in the Yangtze River Basin

Food security is a strategic national priority, yet the expansion of non-grain production of cultivated land (NGPC) poses a substantial threat to grain production capacity. This paper investigates whether agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs)—as a potential high-quality solution to food security challenges—can effectively mitigate NGPC. Conceptually, while ANQPF may either promote or inhibit NGPC, its net effect remains indeterminate. Initially, an optimal decision-making model is developed to theoretically examine the influence of ANQPF on land-use strategies. Aligning with theoretical predictions, empirical estimates from two-way fixed effects models using Yangtze River Basin panel data (2013–2023) demonstrate that ANQPF significantly mitigates NGPC. These results are resilient to a battery of robustness and endogeneity tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that this effect operates through the substitution of traditional labor and the expansion of socialized services tailored to grain crops. This inhibitory effect is found to be more pronounced in major grain-producing regions and less developed areas. Notably, threshold regression reveals a non-linear relationship: the capacity of ANQPF to stabilize grain production diminishes as per capita GDP surpasses a critical threshold, exhibiting a pattern of diminishing marginal returns. The findings suggest that while ANQPF initially inhibits the shift toward non-grain production, its effectiveness is contingent and stage-dependent. This underscores the need for differentiated policy interventions that integrate technological innovation with institutional and economic support to safeguard food security.