Urbanization, land use change, and Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects are critical for sustainable planning in rapidly growing coastal cities. Rapid urban expansion in Bangladesh has significantly altered land cover patterns, intensifying environmental and thermal stress in both urban and coastal regions. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) and UHI in Khulna City Corporation (KCC), southwestern Bangladesh, from 1994 to 2024, with projections to 2044, using integrated geospatial and socio-perceptual approaches. Landsat TM, ETM+, and OLI/TIRS imagery were analyzed using Maximum Likelihood Classification, Land Surface Temperature (LST) retrieval, and spatial statistics including Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis. Future LULC and UHI patterns were projected using a CA–Markov chain model. In addition, a structured survey of 150 residents was conducted to assess thermal perception, health impacts, and adaptive responses. Results show substantial urban expansion, with built-up areas increasing from 21% in 1994 to 47% in 2024 and projected to reach 52% by 2044, accompanied by a marked decline in agricultural and vegetated land. Mean LST increased from 19.95°C to 33.06°C over the study period, with strong and very strong UHI zones expanding more than fourfold. Hotspot analysis identified persistent high-temperature zones in central and southern wards of the city. Survey findings indicate that 96% of respondents experienced thermal discomfort, while 61.7% reported heat-related health impacts. These findings indicate that uncontrolled urban expansion is the primary driver of increasing thermal stress in Khulna. The study highlights the need for integrated urban greening, reflective materials, and climate-sensitive urban planning to enhance resilience and urban livability.
Tasnim et al. (2026) studied this question.