Fertility policy and women’s life-cycle employment: evidence from China’s LLF campaign

This study examines how exposure to China’s ‘Later, Longer, Fewer’ (LLF) fertility campaign affected female employment across different stages of their life cycle. Using province-by-cohort variation in policy exposure and retrospective life histories from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), we find that LLF exposure reduced fertility and increased formal employment during their prime working years (ages 25–49) but reduced employment for women in their 50s. Meanwhile, LLF exposure did not significantly affect female labour‑force participation (LFP) during prime working years. Mediation analysis suggests that the shift towards formal employment during prime working years fully explains the later-life employment decline, which is consistent with the statutory retirement eligibility. The findings highlight how fertility policy can reshape long-run labour supply through the type of employment rather than overall prime-age LFP.