Modeling temperature‐dependent development rate and phenology in insects: review of major developments, challenges, and future directions

Abstract The study of insect responses to temperature has a long tradition in science, starting from Réaumur's work on caterpillars in the 18th century. In 1932, Ernst Janisch wrote: ‘The problem is (and will be more and more in the future) one of the most important ones in entomology …’. Almost 90 years after this paper, its prediction still holds true, with a sustained interest of the scientific community for the study of insect responses to temperature, especially in the context of climate change. We present a review of the major developments in the field of insect development responses to temperature and analyze the growing importance of modeling approaches in the literature using a bibliographic analysis. We discuss recent advances and future directions for phenology‐modeling based on temperature‐dependent development rate. Finally, we highlight the need for a change of paradigm toward a system‐based approach in order to overcome current challenges and to predict insect phenology more accurately, with direct implications in agriculture, conservation biology, and epidemiology.