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The response of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) to a transient increase in future anthropogenic radiative forcing is investigated by multi‐model global warming experiments. Most models show that, in Asia, the summer monsoon rainfall increases significantly with global warming. On the other hand, the future change in the large‐scale flow indicates a weakening of the ASM circulation. Enhanced moisture transport over the Asian summer monsoon region, associated with the increased moisture source from the warmer Indian Ocean, leads to a larger moisture flux convergence, which is responsible for the intensification of the mean rainfall. Pronounced warming over the tropics in the middle‐to‐upper troposphere causes a reduction in the meridional thermal gradient in the Asian region, which is consistent with the weakened monsoon circulation and eastward shift of the Walker circulation.
Ueda et al. (2006) studied this question.