A 2024 COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Australia is predicted to prevent 241,600 symptomatic infections (16% reduction) and 1,200 deaths compared to no campaign, with an ICER of $27,126/QALY gained.
Does a 2024 Winter and Summer COVID-19 mRNA vaccination campaign reduce infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, and is it cost-effective in Australian adults compared to no campaign?
A 2024 COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Australia using variant-adapted mRNA vaccines is projected to be highly cost-effective, significantly reducing hospitalizations, deaths, and long COVID burden.
Number Needed to Treat: 18
Absolute Event Rate: 1231395% vs 1473021%
Number Needed to Treat: 18
Abstract Objectives To assess the clinical and economic impact, and cost-effectiveness, of a 2024 Winter and Summer COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign (2024 Vaccination Campaign) in Australia compared to no 2024 Vaccination Campaign. Design Modelling study using a COVID-19 susceptible-exposed-infect-recovered (SEIR) dynamic transmission model and a COVID-19 vaccination and infections consequences decision analytic model. Setting, Participants: Australia; Winter 2024 COVID-19 vaccination targeting adults aged ≥18 years, with those aged ≥ 65 years eligible for an additional Summer 2024 dose. Intervention: 2024 Vaccination Campaign using a Moderna variant-updated mRNA vaccine compared to no 2024 Vaccination Campaign. Main outcome measures: Projected number of symptomatic infections, hospitalisation, deaths, and cases of long COVID prevented; quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, incremental cost of the 2024 Vaccination Campaign, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the campaign compared to No Vaccination Campaign. Results Compared to no Vaccination Campaign, a 2024 Vaccination Campaign in Australia is predicted to prevent 241, 600 symptomatic infections, 13, 500 COVID-19 hospitalisations, 1, 200 deaths, and 11, 900 cases of long COVID, representing a decrease of 16%, 23%, 26%, and 17%, respectively. This resulted in 19, 200 fewer QALYs lost. COVID-19 treatment costs saved with the 2024 Vaccination Campaign was 511. 7 million. This partially offset the costs associated with vaccination and adverse event treatment (1. 03 billion), resulting in an incremental 2024 Vaccination Campaign cost of 522 million for a population of 26. 3 million, with 4. 35 million vaccinations administered. The ICER was 27, 100/QALY gained. Increasing the vaccine coverage rate to that observed with influenza vaccination prevented more cases of infection, hospitalisation, and deaths compared to the base case, with an ICER of 34, 400/QALY gained. Conclusion Even in the endemic setting with high hybrid immunity, substantial clinical and economic benefits to vaccinating those aged ≥18 years against COVID-19 remain. These benefits may be amplified with increased vaccination coverage. Summary box The known: Vaccination campaigns were a cost-effective strategy to battle the clinical and economic impact of COVID-19 during the pandemic. Even in the endemic setting, COVID-19 continues to cause substantial clinical and economic burden to Australia. The new: Even in a population with high hybrid immunity, COVID-19 vaccination campaigns continue to be cost-effective in Australia in the endemic setting. Clinical benefits are increased by improving the vaccination coverage rate, and not narrowing the targeted population. The implications: In Australia, annual COVID-19 vaccination campaigns should continue. Increasing the COVID-19 vaccination coverage rates and including a broader recommended population is feasible with an acceptable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.
Lee et al. (2024) studied COVID-19 (n=26,300,000). 2024 Vaccination Campaign (Moderna variant-updated mRNA vaccine) vs. No 2024 Vaccination Campaign was evaluated on Symptomatic infections (16% reduction). A 2024 COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Australia is predicted to prevent 241,600 symptomatic infections (16% reduction) and 1,200 deaths compared to no campaign, with an ICER of $27,126/QALY gained.