Do democratic elections affect policy outcomes, and how do these effects evolve over time? Existing evidence is mixed, focusing on federal elections in two-party systems using RDDs. We study municipal elections in Germany’s multiparty system, examining how electoral support for the pro-environmental Green Party affects photovoltaic power capacity investment. Exploiting quasi-random variation generated by staggered elections, we implement a triple difference-in-differences design using panel data (1990-2022). We find strongly time-dependent electoral effects. Electoral support generates sizable short-run increases in capacities (+3.4 MW/municipality), including anticipation effects. These effects reverse in the long-run (-4.2 MW/municipality), primarily driven by less residential capacity.
Bierl et al. (Thu,) studied this question.
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