Citizens’ Ideas about the Scenarios of Russia’s Future Development in Conditions of High Uncertainty

The article presents the results of an empirical study of the ideas of Russian citizens about probabilistic scenarios for the future development of Russia. The research is based on materials from in-depth and formalized interviews, as well as projective drawing tests collected in the autumn of 2023 among respondents of three age groups from several regions of Russia. The dominant scenarios in the minds of the population for the future development of Russia in the next areas are described: in the economy, in culture, in the political sphere. The main areas of the future are highlighted, reflecting the psychological states of respondents ranging from positive to negative. Conclusions are made about the influence of emotional and psychological factors of the event context that are situational character, especially the dynamics of the socio-political agenda supported by various media, on the instability and fragmentation of mass ideas about the future. Despite the significant efforts of the state to ensure the security of the information environment in Russia, ideological and value imbalances still persist. Content broadcast by media from unfriendly countries continues to influence part of the Russian audience, which requires strengthening response measures in the field of protection against external information and psychological threats and destructive influence on the consciousness of Russian citizens.