Phosphorus Cycling in Sediments of Deep and Large Reservoirs: Environmental Effects and Interface Processes

Although the sediment–water interface of deep and large reservoirs is recognized as a dominant source of internal phosphorus (P) loading, the quantitative hierarchy of environmental drivers and their interaction thresholds remains poorly resolved. Here, we integrate 512 studies to provide the first process-based synthesis that partitions P release fluxes among temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, salinity, sediment properties, and microbial activity across canyon, valley, and plain-type reservoirs. By deriving standardized effect sizes from 61 data-rich papers, we show that (i) a 1 °C rise in bottom-water temperature increases soluble reactive P (SRP) flux by 12.4% (95% CI: 10.8–14.0%), with sensitivity 28% lower in Alpine oligotrophic systems and 20% higher in warm monomictic basins; (ii) a single-unit pH shift—whether acid or alkaline—stimulates P release through distinct desorption pathways,; and (iii) each 1 mg L−1 drop in dissolved oxygen amplifies release by 31% (25–37%). Critically, we demonstrate that these drivers rarely act independently: multi-factor laboratory and in situ analyses reveal that simultaneous hypoxia and warming can triple the release rate predicted from single-factor models. We further identify that >75% of measurements originate from dam-proximal zones, creating spatial blind spots that currently limit global P-load forecasts to ±50% uncertainty. To close this gap, we advocate coupled metagenomic–geochemical observatories that link gene expression (phoD, ppk, pqqC) to real-time SRP fluxes. The review advances beyond the existing literature by (1) establishing the first quantitative, globally transferable framework for temperature-, DO-, and pH-based management levers; (2) exposing the overlooked role of regional climate in modulating temperature sensitivity; and (3) providing a research agenda that reduces forecasting uncertainty to <20% within two years.