Assessing the impact of climate variability and political stability on livestock productivity in the EAC

Abstract Livestock production is a cornerstone of food security, economic stability, and rural livelihoods in the East African Community (EAC), significantly contributing to national economies. Despite its importance, livestock productivity faces persistent challenges due to climatic variability, economic disparities, demographic pressures, and governance issues. Understanding these factors is crucial for developing effective interventions and resilience strategies. This study examines the long-run and short-run relationships between livestock production and key explanatory variables, including Rainfall, Temperature, CO₂ Emissions, GDP per Capita, Population Density, Land Use Patterns for Agriculture, and Political Stability, using panel data from 1996 to 2021 across EAC countries. The Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method, validated by the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) cointegration technique, reveals that temperature has a significant negative impact on livestock productivity in the long run, highlighting the detrimental effects of heat stress and environmental degradation. Population density and Land Use Patterns for Agriculture exhibit positive and significant relationships, emphasizing the role of infrastructure, market access, and sustainable land management. Political stability emerges as a crucial determinant, reinforcing governance’s role in fostering agricultural resilience. In contrast, rainfall, CO₂ emissions, and GDP per capita show statistically insignificant long-run effects. In the short run, most variables display limited significance, indicating livestock systems’ structural and gradual responsiveness to shocks. Policymakers should prioritize climate adaptation, irrigation infrastructure, targeted agricultural policies, and political stability, while enhancing regional cooperation for sustainable livestock productivity.