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September 5, 2025Open Access

Trade wars in the new stage of globalization

NNNataliia V. NaidenovaSaratov State Academy of Law

Key Points

Trade wars are exacerbated by structural imbalances in the global economy, especially between the USA and key trade participants.
China's economic growth has led to increased competitiveness and a rise in its global export share, particularly in ICT goods.
Digitalization is transforming global value chains, shifting focus from goods to services, complicating competition in intellectual property.
The emergence of trade wars signals a shift in economic dynamics, with developed economies leading in commercial services.

Abstract

Introduction. Transnationalization did not contribute to smoothing out contradictions between the subjects of global economy; it complicated and intensified the competitive struggle, even leading to trade wars. Theoretical analysis. The previous stage of globalization was characterized by the growing involvement of countries in global value chains. However, as the role of cheap labor and raw materials in value creation declined, a slowing trend in global fragmentation of production began to be observed. The world’s largest exporters – the United States and China – began to reduce the share of foreign added value in exported products, which inevitably led to a conflict in the form of a trade war, meaning the widespread use of restrictive and stimulating measures of protectionist policy. Empirical analysis. China’s high economic growth and increased international competitiveness have led to a significant increase in its share of global exports, including information and communication technologies goods. Acceleration of digitalization and the formation of ecosystems have led to an increase in the growth rate of global trade in commercial services, with the United States and other developed economies taking the lead. Over the past decade, developing countries have become more lag-free in software services trade. Results. Among the characteristic features of the new stage of globalization, which exacerbate the contradictions of the world economy and lead to trade wars, it is necessary to highlight: structural imbalances between the USA and major participants in world trade, which have developed for objective reasons as a result of the dominance of the services sector in the structure of the US economy; the transformation of global chains of value creation of goods into global chains of value creation of services under the influence of robotization, the reduction of the role of cheap labor as a competitive advantage; the complication of competition in the sphere of intellectual property protection, the provision of software services, and research and development services.

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