Optimisation of credit strategies in the agro-industrial complex under conditions of market instability

The purpose of this study was to analyse the problems of lending to the agroindustrial complex of Kazakhstan and to develop a methodology for its sustainable financing. The study was based on a systematic approach, including theoretical analysis of economic and financial factors, comparative analysis of international practices, as well as the development of subsidy, insurance, and monitoring methods to optimise the sustainability of lending to the agro-industrial complex. The findings of the study revealed that ensuring the sustainability of lending to agro-industrial complex requires a comprehensive approach, including the integration of mechanisms of state regulation, market instruments, and risk management methods. The analysis of existing practices of agro-industrial complex financing in Kazakhstan revealed that the key problems continue to be the high cost of borrowed funds (in 2024 the loan rate was 6% for soft loans, and reached 25-27% in the case of commercial loans), limited access of small and medium-sized farmers to credit resources, as well as the underdevelopment of agricultural risk insurance mechanisms. In this context, the study confirmed the effectiveness of such instruments as interest rate subsidies, state credit guarantees, and the expansion of preferential lending programmes for agricultural producers. According to the findings, this enabled small farmers to access financing in the amount of 10 billion tenge and increase production capacity by 15-20%. Additionally, the study found that in an unstable macroeconomic environment, regular monitoring of macroeconomic factors and adaptation of credit policy to changes in financial markets are significant, as a tonne of grain cost around 80,000 tenge in 2020 and could reach 135,000 tenge by 2024. The use of digital platforms and analytical tools to assess risks and forecast market trends can greatly improve the efficiency of agribusiness credit management. Furthermore, international practices in agricultural finance, particularly models of credit support used in developed and transition economies, can be adapted to the conditions of Kazakhstan, considering the specific features of its agricultural sector and financial system. The obtained findings provided a basis for improving the mechanisms of lending to the agro-industrial complex, increasing the availability of financial resources for agricultural producers, and minimising credit risks in conditions of economic instability