Competitiveness of Belarusian Dairy Products in the Food Market of the Novosibirsk Region: Analysis and Prospects

This study is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the competitiveness of Belarusian dairy products in the food market of the Novosibirsk region in the context of the changing economic situation after 2014 and increased sanctions pressure, especially after the events of 2022. The work uses modern methods of economic analysis, including comparative price analysis, which showed the advantage of Belarusian products by 9-12.5%. The Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) was also calculated, which amounted to 4236, which indicates a high concentration of the Novosibirsk Region market. In addition, a PEST analysis of the external environment was performed and the Porter five forces model was applied. The results of the study demonstrate that Belarusian dairy products occupy 11% of the regional market and successfully compete with local producers, who occupy 33% of the market. This is achieved through a combination of lower prices, stable quality and efficient logistics. Special attention is paid to the influence of political factors, such as cooperation within the EAEU and the organization of specialized fairs, which ensure an annual turnover of up to 70 million rubles. Key problems were identified: insufficient presence in large retail chains, weak advertising support, and dependence on the political environment. Recommendations include measures to develop branding, expand distribution through online channels, and improve quality standards for local producers. The research materials are of practical value to market participants and regional government authorities.