Climate variability and agricultural productivity: A time-series regression analysis of cassava, yam, and maize yields in Wenchi, Ghana

This study examined the impacts of climate variability and cultivated land area on the yields of cassava, yam, and maize in Wenchi Municipality, Ghana, from 2000 to 2021. Using a quantitative approach, the study employed time-series data on rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures, crop yields, and cultivated area. Multiple linear regression models with logarithmic transformations were used to assess the influence of climate variables and cultivated area on crop yields. Diagnostic tests confirmed the validity of model assumptions. The regression results revealed that temperature variables, especially minimum temperature, had a significant positive effect on all three crop yields. Maximum temperature also showed positive effects, although with varying levels of significance. Rainfall and cultivated area had no statistically significant impact on yields. The models explained 46.87%, 51.28%, and 61.57% of the variations in cassava, yam, and maize yields, respectively. Temperature played a more critical role than rainfall or cultivated land in influencing crop yields in Wenchi over the study period. These findings underscore the need for temperature-focused adaptation strategies and climate-smart agriculture to enhance food security and resilience in the transitional zones of Ghana.