Shrinking Cities in Belarus. Spatial Differentiation of Demographic Development

Global economic shifts, demographic transition, political, social, and environmental changes, as well as local crises, have led to the emergence of shrinking cities around the world. The present article assesses the dynamics and scale of demographic shrinkage of Belarusian cities for three intercensal periods: 1989–1999, 1999–2009, 2009–2019. The geographical study of shrinking cities in Belarus was carried out using the conceptual foundations of the shaping factors and criteria for identifying shrinking cities, theoretical approaches to assess demographic processes, and a set of methods (mathematical and statistical, demographic trajectories, grouping, classification matrices, balance, geographical systematization, cartographic and GIS-technologies). The aim of the study was to evaluate the trends of dynamics, scale and differentiation of demographic development of shrinking cities by regions in Belarus, over the period of 1989–2019. Based on international experience, the criteria of shrinking cities applied to the territory of Belarus were defined for the first time, thus becoming a subject of scientific research novelty. The main criteria of demographic contraction of the Belarusian cities are: population decrease over the period between 1989 and 2019, negative annual growth of population, and regressive demographic balance. The shrinking cities of Belarus are heterogeneous in demographic development and divided into three types: 1) outpacing shrinkage (since 1989); 2) catching-up shrinkage (from 1999–2009); 3) reversible demographic trend, with the dominance of the cities in the second category (68%). The dominance of shrinking cities in Belarus is typical for three regions, namely Viciebsk, Mahilioŭ and Homieĺ, which reflects the general trend of depopulation in the eastern and northeastern regions of the country. Establishing a typology of shrinking cities in Belarus represents a scientific innovation and provides a corresponding basis for a differentiated approach to setting promising strategies for their future development.