ABSTRACT: This study presents a comprehensive modeling framework that integrates advanced hydraulic fracture simulation with reservoir production forecasting and extensive sensitivity analyses to evaluate long-term production in a deep shale gas reservoir in the Sichuan Basin, Southwest China. A 3D single-well model, incorporating critical rock mechanical properties and a detailed natural fracture network, was developed to realistically simulate fracture propagation under complex in situ conditions. The calibrated fracture geometry was then seamlessly integrated into a production simulation using the Embedded Discrete Fracture Model (EDFM), predicting an Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) of approximately 1.25 x 108 m3 over 20 years, with activated natural fractures contributing about 12% to overall production. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that increasing fracture length and height significantly enhances production - by up to 63% and 53%, respectively - while fracture conductivity shows negligible improvements beyond 5 md-m. Moreover, matrix permeability and porosity were found to be critical parameters, with higher values boosting production by up to 146% and 77%, respectively. These findings provide valuable insights into the interplay between fracture characteristics and reservoir properties, offering guidance for optimizing hydraulic fracturing designs in deep shale gas reservoirs.
Shi et al. (Sun,) studied this question.