Economic evaluation of ecotourism development based on saiga populations in Kazakhstan

The aim of this study is to develop and economically justify a model of a tourist ecozone for saiga conservation in saiga habitats. The study focuses on predicting the growth of the animal population, as well as increasing the flow of tourists to the selected areas of Kazakhstan. The paper calculates the investment attractiveness of a project to build infrastructure for tourists in the areas of animal distribution and migration. The study used a comprehensive approach to study the development of ecotourism in the region. Data for the period 2019-2024 were used for model building. Investment attractiveness was assessed using quantitative indicators NPV and IRR. The approach based on the integration of the methods used makes it possible to assess the investment attractiveness of ecotourism development in the region. The results show that there is a correlation between an increase in the number of tourists to protected areas and an increase in the saiga population in the same areas, so the development of ecotourism is attractive from an investment point of view. The project has a high degree of sustainability and a quick payback period. IRR = 34.5% with a payback period of less than 3.2 years. The projected growth of tourism revenues in the region by more than 3.8 times demonstrates the economic feasibility of investment in the ecozone. The novelty of the study lies in the author's modeling of the relationship between saiga population growth and the investment attractiveness of ecotourism development through a comprehensive assessment. The originality of the study lies in the identification of the correlation between the growth of tourist flow and the habitat of a particular wildlife species, and the construction of models for forecasting the development of the main components to determine the investment attractiveness. The results can be used to attract investment in the ecotourism sector and optimize management decision-making processes. A significant factor of sustainable development the ecological conservation of saiga populations is taken into account. The proposed solution can be used in different countries of the world to conserve saigas in their compact habitats.