Given the intensifying effects of climate change and the escalating human activities in the Arctic, such as shipping and resource extraction, the likelihood of oil spills in the region has increased substantially. The assessment of oil spill risks in Arctic ice-covered regions requires careful consideration of multiple interacting factors, including environmental parameters, socioeconomic vulnerabilities, and emergency response capabilities. There is an urgent need for a systematic assessment approach to support informed risk management decisions. This research aims to develop a multi-criteria decision-making framework to quantify the key drivers of Arctic oil spill risk and classify risk levels, thereby providing a basis for targeted intervention strategies. The intricate nature of Arctic ecosystems, combined with extreme weather conditions and sparse infrastructure, renders conventional risk models insufficient. In response to this challenge, our study employs sophisticated, integrative methodologies to more effectively capture the interrelationships between various risk factors. By integrating the DEMATEL-ANP method, this paper analyzes the causal relationships and relative weights among 14 indicators across four interrelated network layers. These methods not only clarify the causal chains between factors but also account for the intricate interrelations and dependencies within the system, offering a more comprehensive and adaptable decision-making framework. This integration leverages the strengths of both methods, enhancing the depth and accuracy of the analysis. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) approach is applied to convert expert judgments and derived weights into 5 categorical risk levels. The fuzzy logic component handles uncertainties inherent in expert elicitation, ensuring robustness despite data scarcity. The results indicate that ecological and socioeconomic vulnerability contribute most significantly to overall risk, while environmental factors such as sea ice coverage severely constrain emergency response effectiveness. The weighted FCE score identifies the Arctic oil spill scenario as high risk. The integrated DEMATEL-ANP-FCE framework effectively addresses the challenges of limited data availability in complex risk environments and provides a scientific foundation for Arctic oil spill monitoring, emergency planning, and policy formulation.
Zeng Zihan (Tue,) studied this question.