This quantitative exploratory study investigates changes in students' Semester Grade Point Average (GPA) and their relationship with graduation status and study duration. It uses academic records from the Department of Mathematics at a public university in Indonesia for cohorts from 2017 to 2024. The study addresses concerns raised after the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have disrupted academic progression and altered the predictive power of initial GPA on graduation outcomes a gap not sufficiently explored in existing literature. Data were collected directly from the university's academic database, ensuring accuracy and consistency without relying on self-reported surveys. Descriptive statistical methods and visual analytics (e.g., line charts, boxplots, and scatter plots) were applied to uncover trends and patterns. Results show that earlier cohorts (2017–2020) have high graduation rates (82.7%–94.4%), while the 2019 cohort recorded the highest dropout rate (11.1%). Newer cohorts (2021–2024) predominantly consist of students still enrolled, though some early graduations and dropouts occurred. A positive correlation was found between first-semester GPA and graduation success, yet the pandemic likely introduced new variables that affect academic outcomes. These findings provide actionable insights for academic policy and support the development of early detection systems to identify students at academic risk.
Rahmat et al. (Thu,) studied this question.
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