Cumin and chilli rank among Indias’ leading spice exports, establishing the country as a key player in the global spice trade. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of Indias’ performance in international trade of these spices, utilizing the Compound Growth Rate (CGR), Instability Indexand Markov Chain analysis. The study period for chilli is (2001-2024) and cumin is (2010-2024). The study aims to assess the growth trends, volatilityand market dynamics of Indian chilli and cumin exports in order to offer crucial insights into their long-term viability and competitive position. CGR is used to calculate the annual growth rate in export volume, value and price, thereby illustrating trends in Indias’ spice trade. Changes in export performance are measured by the Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index, which accounts for the impact of external shocks, policy changesand price volatility. The probability of a trade transition is also examined using Markov Chain Analysis to ascertain the stability of Indias’ export destinations and potential market moves over time. The results indicate a notable increase in cumin and chilli exports, but with regular fluctuations caused by changing trade laws, weather patternsand global demand. The Markov Chain model provides a framework for predicting future trade trends, identifying key export destinations and their retention potential. This report is a strategic tool that policymakers, exportersand other stakeholders can utilize to lower risks, enhance market stabilityand support Indias’ global spice trade.
Sowmiya et al. (Sun,) studied this question.