The Aral Sea, which was once the world's fourth-largest inland lake, served as the terminal basin for the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers in Central Asia. However, since the 1960s, significant hydrological alterations have been observed, resulting in a drastic reduction of its surface area to less than 10% of its original extent. As a wide and shallow lake, the Aral Sea is highly responsive to fluctuations in water level, and its desiccation has led to a series of severe environmental consequences. The surface area of the lake, which directly influences evaporation rates, inflow requirements, and ecological stability in the surrounding region, represents a critical parameter in assessing the impact of its retreat. A comprehensive analysis of the Aral Sea's hydrological variations, which are closely linked to environmental changes, necessitates an in-depth investigation of the relationship among water level, surface area, and water storage capacity. Although extensive research has been conducted on this subject, significant discrepancies persist due to variations in research periods, data sources, and methodological approaches. In this study, historical records are synthesized with newly acquired data to reconstruct the evolutionary trajectory of the Aral Sea. Furthermore, a systematic regression analysis of the water level–area–storage relationship is performed, providing a reliable reference for future investigations into the region's hydrological and environmental dynamics.
Duan et al. (2025) studied this question.