Prospects for international freight traffic along the Northern Sea Route

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) serves as a vital route for Russia, driven by both economic demands and the need for industrial development in the Arctic. The country primarily uses the NSR to supply goods to its northern regions, with the route also used by Russian companies involved in Arctic projects. As a result of economic growth in the Russian Arctic, advances in transportation technologies for navigating harsh Arctic conditions, and ongoing climate change, the NSR is expected to grow in significance as a global transport corridor, including its role in international trade. This article analyzes freight traffic and assesses the NSR’s potential for international transit. The study aims to identify promising directions for the future development of international transit along the NSR. It examines domestic and transit freight traffic dynamics over an eleven-year period, concluding that recent geopolitical events in Ukraine and the resulting anti-Russian sanctions have impacted transit traffic volumes. Key challenges to the development of NSR transit freight traffic are identified, along with their potential consequences. The study assesses the NSR’s transit capacity and outlines priority actions for unlocking its full potential. Two primary areas for future transit development are highlighted: facilitating transit traffic from China and increasing container traffic volumes, both of which warrant further exploration. The relevance of this study is underscored by the growing need to enhance NSR transit freight traffic. The scientific contribution of this research lies in its evaluation of the NSR’s transit potential using statistical analysis and in identifying strategic directions for transit development. The practical significance of the study is reflected in its recommendations, which aim to support the growth of the NSR as a key international transit route.