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Significance Although it has long pursued an independent foreign policy, Seoul is accelerating cooperation with Washington amid concerns that its political gains may be undone by stronger domestic political opposition and a second presidential term for Donald Trump. Trump’s likely return has also softened China’s tone towards South Korea and Japan. Impacts Biden and Yoon will aim to agree on defence cost-sharing, but Trump would order a hike in Seoul’s contribution if he returned to office. If Trump’s policy towards allies continues, calls for South Korea to have its own nuclear deterrent will grow stronger. Trump’s return would likely end US pressure on South Korea to give stronger support to Ukraine, including supplying weapons directly. After 2027, Yoon’s fence-mending with Tokyo may be undone, unless the DPK elects new leadership and tempers its hostility to Japan.
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