Internal Migration and Fertility Levels among Nigerian Women: Analysis on Trends and Patterns

Nigeria’s population continues to grow despite various government intervention programmes and increased geographical mobility. While existing studies have shown the effects of increasing geographical mobility on migrants’ reproductive behaviour, there are still divergent views on how this affects trends and patterns in fertility decline, especially among internal migrants in Nigeria. This paper, however, presents the trends and patterns of internal migration and fertility levels among Nigerian women, while taking into account the mutually reinforcing processes of migration and fertility. The retrospective survey utilised nationally representative secondary data from the 2008 and 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS). A sample of 70,761 women (aged 15-49 years) was drawn: 30,612 from the 2008 NDHS and 40,149 from the 2008 NDHS birth recode files. Data were analysed using descriptive and binary logistic regression at a 95% significance threshold. The migration status identified between 2008 and 2018 ranged from rural non-migrant (31.0%; 37.4%) to urban non-migrant (10.8%; 22.7%), rural-rural (26.9%; 14.3%); rural-urban (4.5%; 4.4%); urban-urban (15.5%; 13.1%) and urban-rural (11.4%; 8.1%) migrants. The mean number of children ever-born by migration statuses ranged from rural non-migrant (3.13; 3.18) to urban non-migrant (2.27; 2.44); rural-rural (4.1; 4.15); rural-urban (4.00; 3.42); urban-urban (2.65; 2.74), and urban-rural (3.25; 3.24) migrant women. While internal migration significantly increased fertility levels among rural-urban migrants (OR=1.135; OR=1.109) and rural-rural (OR=1.468; OR=1.580) significantly decreased fertility levels of urban-urban (OR=0.589; OR=0.640) migrants. Contraceptive use programmes targeting rural-urban, rural-rural and non-migrant populations should be initiated and implemented in Nigeria.