The unidirectional relationship between forest disturbance and armed conflict in the Andean Paramo

The armed conflict in Colombia has profoundly transformed rural landscapes, significantly impacting local communities. Sumapaz, the world's largest paramo, is a crucial water source for over 15 million people in the central Andean region of Colombia. Historically, the paramo functioned as a strategic corridor for the leftist guerrilla Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) to gain access to Bogotá for a potential armed takeover of political power. The specific impact of the conflict between the FARC and the Colombian army in the paramo, as well as the effects of conflict de-escalation, remain understudied. By analyzing forest disturbances and records on victims and conflict events, we identified a unidirectional relationship between the intensity of armed conflict and landscape transformation. Forest disturbances were significantly higher during the armed conflict (2001-2012). In contrast, forest disturbances have markedly decreased since the beginning of peace negotiations in 2012 and the subsequent peace agreement period 2016-2020. These findings contrast with documented trends in other regions of the country, such as the Andean and Amazonian areas. Our results demonstrate that the legacy of armed confrontation between the Colombian army and FARC in the paramo negatively impacted the landscape. Importantly, these findings provide valuable insights into conservation policies and environmental management during the post-peace agreement era, offering an opportunity to develop future preservation actions and shape the future of the Andean Paramo.