Probing Cold-to-Temperate Exoplanetary Atmospheres: The Role of Water Condensation on Surface Identification with JWST

Understanding the surface temperature and interior structure of cold-to-temperate sub-Neptunes is critical for assessing their habitability, yet direct observations are challenging. In this study, we investigate the impact of water condensation on the atmospheric compositions of sub-Neptunes, focusing on the implications for JWST spectroscopic observations. By modeling the atmospheric photochemistry of two canonical sub-Neptunes, K2-18 b and LHS 1140 b, both with and without water condensation and with and without thick atmospheres, we demonstrate that water condensation can significantly affect the predicted atmospheric compositions. This effect is driven by oxygen depletion from the condensation of water vapor and primarily manifests as an increase in the C/O ratio within the photochemically active regions of the atmosphere. This change in composition particularly affects planets with thin H₂-dominated atmospheres, leading to a transition in dominant nitrogen and carbon carriers from N₂ and oxygen-rich species like CO/CO₂ towards heavier hydrocarbons and nitriles. While our models do not fully account for the loss mechanisms of these higher-order species, such molecules can go on to form more refractory molecules or hazes. Planets with thin H2-rich atmospheres undergoing significant water condensation are thus likely to exhibit very hazy atmospheres. The relatively flat JWST spectra observed for LHS 1140 b could be consistent with such a scenario, suggesting a shallow surface with extensive water condensation or a high atmospheric C/O ratio. Conversely, the JWST observations of K2-18 b are better aligned with a volatile-rich mini-Neptune with a thick atmosphere.